Everyone said AI would make software engineers obsolete, but the numbers disagree. There’s been a lot of noise lately about AI wiping out tech jobs. Headlines scream about layoffs. 

CEOs warn of mass unemployment, and software engineers, many assumed, would be the first to go.

But fresh data from venture firm SignalFire tells a very different story. Engineers aren’t disappearing. They’re actually in higher demand.

Layoff Narrative

Yes, tech layoffs have been brutal. May 2026 saw the highest single-month job cut total in years, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Companies are consistently blaming one thing: AI. The logic seems simple: AI writes code now, so why pay engineers?

But SignalFire’s head of research, Asher Bantock, says that reasoning doesn’t hold up when you look at actual hiring behavior. 

“The rationale given for lots of layoffs is consistently AI,” he said. “What we’re seeing on the ground is a little inconsistent with that.”

SignalFire tracked the careers of millions of workers across more than 80 million companies. That’s a massive dataset. And what they found surprised many people.

Also read: Meta is Cutting 8,000 Jobs Due to AI Investment

Engineering

Here’s the key finding. While total hiring at large tech companies dropped 25% compared to 2019 levels, engineering roles only fell by 11%. 

Engineers were found to make up 55% of all new hires in 2025 at the 12 companies SignalFire labels “Tech Majors.” 

That list includes giants like Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia, Tesla, Uber, Airbnb, Block, and Stripe.

Back in 2019, engineers were just 46% of new recruits at those same companies. So their share of hiring has actually grown. That’s not what a dying profession looks like.

Startups 

Early-stage startups hired 7% more engineers in 2025 than they did in 2019. Startups are lean and don’t waste money. 

If AI were truly replacing engineers, startups would be the first to cut them. Instead, they’re hiring more.

Some of the biggest names in tech have weighed in on this debate, and they’re not all singing the same tune.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei made headlines last year when he warned that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 20% within five years. 

But Anthropic’s own head of economics, Peter McCrory, told TechCrunch in March 2026 that he had not yet seen any meaningful AI-driven effects on the workforce. 

He noted there’s been no significant difference in unemployment rates between workers whose jobs are heavily exposed to AI, such as software engineers and technical writers, and those in roles that require physical skills.

Meanwhile, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has been even more direct. At a Stanford Graduate School of Business event in April, he debated against AI killing engineering jobs. 

Since Nvidia engineers started using agentic AI tools, he said, “software engineers are busier than ever.”

AI generates code fast, but that just raises the bar for what gets built. Engineers spend more time on new ideas, bigger problems, and bolder projects.

Jevons Paradox 

Jevons paradox comes from 19th-century economist William Stanley Jevons. He noticed that when steam engines became more efficient, coal consumption went up, not down. 

That’s because efficiency made coal-powered work more profitable, so people did more of it. The same logic applies to engineers and AI.

AI tools make engineers faster and more productive. That doesn’t shrink the need for engineers but increases what’s possible. 

So companies want more engineers to take advantage of that new capacity. As Bantock put it: “They’re suddenly a lot more productive, and there’s endless work for them to do.”